Friday, October 8, 2010

USDA Estimate Cut in Corn Yield Sends Agriculture Stocks Flying

What a tremendous move today in the agriculture space... amazing what a 4% estimated cut in corn production will do for you.   Considering this is within the margin for error... and considering this will still be the 3rd largest corn production year on record... and largest soybean year the moves are remarkable.  (I find myself saying that a lot lately).  Right now any outlier news that can be used as an excuse to drive up any soft or hard commodity is creating parabolic moves.

  • The USDA says its corn estimate has a margin of error of 5.4 percent and soybeans 4 percent.

Via Reuters:

  • The U.S. corn crop is likely to be far smaller than expected as late summer heat reduced yields across the Corn Belt, and the corn stockpile will shrink to less than a four-week supply by next fall, a government report said on Friday.
  • In a shock to markets, the U.S. Agriculture Department cut its estimate of the corn crop by 4 percent and soybeans by 2 percent based on conditions Oct. 1. Its forecast of crop size and a bare-bones level of season-ending stocks were well below analysts' expectations and sent grain prices soaring in Chicago.
  • At the Chicago Board of Trade, corn, soybean and wheat futures each rose by the maximum permitted daily amount. Corn for December delivery zoomed 30 cents to $5.28-1/4 a bushel, December soybeans rocketed 70 cents to $11.35 a bushel, and wheat shot up 60 cents to $7.19-1/4.
  • Fertilizer shares also rose, with analyst Edlain Rodriguez of Broadpoint Glecher saying farmers will need nutrients to expand corn production.
  • Despite the slump, the corn crop would be the third-largest on record. The soybean crop would still would be the biggest on record.

You have multiple fertilizer stocks (IPI, MOS, CF) up 10%ish... you have equipment makers (AGCO, CNH) up 10%ish...everything must go.  (up)

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