Tuesday, October 12, 2010

K.I.S.S. - Coasting Along the 13 Day Moving Average

Many times in hindsight things are quite obvious.  As one observes the S&P 500, since the huge jump Sept 1, 2010 on "ok" Chinese PMI / U.S. ISM data the S&P 500 has not fallen below the 13 day moving average.  The only two minor retracements were to this level, which resulted in a bounce.  While seemingly reverse engineering a theory, the 13 day MA is actually one used by quite a few technicians.

As one needs to think more and more like a quant, one would assume without a combination of a meaningful dollar rally AND a close below the 13 day moving average on the S&P 500 - the market remains in uptrend.  I say that even as many leaders (especially of the cloud kind) are weakening, and speculative juices are on overdrive with yesterday's explosion of multiple small cap "nonsense" Chinese stocks.

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