Thursday, October 21, 2010

Bookkeeping: Closing Trina Solar (TSL) and Selling Half of Baidu (BIDU)

As usual, I top ticked the solar sector - perhaps within hours of the top.  As I wrote last week when I started Trina Solar (TSL):

Whenever I buy a solar stock, it does a good job of ending the rally... I am the ultimate contrarian indicator in this space.

And as usual the reason I hate this sector for investing purposes is playing out in typical fashion... entire moves up get retracted in days or a week or two.   No strong hands in this sector; all hot money traders interspersed with the few "long timers" who won't sell now or in 20 years.  Awesome sector for trading fast, but a terrible place to invest.... been like this for much of the past 3-4 years.  If you have a lot of patience when this sector does nothing for 3-4 months straight its good to build positions and then wait for the 50% move out of the blue that eventually comes, and then get the heck out of dodge.

Anyhow, I did my part to end the move, so solar bears "you are welcome".  The jury is still out if my purchase of solar was timed close to the top of the general market move - while the market has held up the past week, it has not really made much progress over mid S&P 1180s.  The next time I enter the sector (I only try it about once a year) you won't know because it won't be real time (but if you see this group of stocks tanking 20% across the board in a week, you will know who was buying), so this was your last chance to make mad money off me.  I was able to lose a cool 17% in just over a week - again, it's a special relationship between solar and I.

Breakout to fakeout - just like that.

Going back to real stocks, Baidu (BIDU) reports tonight - I had a nice profit Monday but the stock has retracted the past few days and unfortunately has not caught "Netflix fever" as I hoped it would.  So I am going to sell just over half for very minor gains (+2%) to reduce exposure going into earnings.  Much like the Apple report, Amazon and Baidu both report tonight and expectations are at extreme levels, so it will be difficult to match the hype - but anything is possible.  The stock could be up 10% tomorrow morning or down... total crap shoot (which is not investing).

As for the market today, the typical nonsense - the dollar rallied mid day and hence everything must be sold off... these algo moves en masse truly take the fun out of it.  Hence most of my fun now centers around making solar bulls wince.

Long Baidu in fund; no personal position


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