Thursday, October 21, 2010

Bookkeeping: Closing CB Richard Ellis (CBG)

Here is a problem of late - almost all the stocks I am buying recently are not on list A... or list B... but down there on the  "oh fine, I'll buy you if I must" list.  This is what happens when all the stocks you truly like go on ballistic missile runs (September) and then fall over dead as of Oct 1st... OR ... you just completely missed entering some of the names you should have been in, because your head was in the "cloud" (computing).

So you turn to your C list... and my C list is not treating me very well after the first few days of entry.  These are the Bad News Bears of the stock world.  CB Richard Ellis (CBG) is part of the C list.... as a daytrader this would have been a great trade... I bought and the next day it was up 6%... easy money.  But since I'm not a daytrader, I held... bad idea.  The chart is still "fine", but the problem here is the reason I bought is gone.   You had a month and a half range of approx $17.75 to $19.00 where it built a base.  It broke out of that base... I bought expecting a "run"... the next day it spiked over $20 ... and that was the end of the trade to be blunt.  A 2 day run.  Not much juice...

Another "breakout" to "fakeout"

Now it is back in the range... certainly it could re-spike.  Maybe the trade works the 2nd time around (sort of that OpenTrade short I outlined yesterday that did not work on the first iteration but on the second).   But since I bought this for nothing other than for a technical trade, unlike my "go to" stocks I am going to exit with a 3% loss and put it back into the C pile, with a bunch of other stocks I buy about 140 S&P points into a rally when every respectable stock has already run.  (it's 1:58 AM at the stock bar....)

And with that we still remain stuck in the conundrum - chase stocks up tens of percentages in a row with no break at all (which apparently many carbon and silicon based traders are content to do), or buy stuff from the C pile that is there for a reason.  This is essentially why I am stuck trading the index mostly ... very little merchandise available that is of quality that is either not in the middle of non stop running OR has broken down technically (see "the cloud").  Traditionally when I am in this position at a loss to find new positions, that means the run is over - everything has had its turn to run, and the market corrects at least somewhat.  But that was when the market had human emotions dominating, was somewhat 'free', and  did not have a Fed head whose apparent new goal in life is trying to manipulate prices of everything (not named the dollar) upward to create 'inflation'.

Rock.  Hard Place.

No position


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