Friday, October 29, 2010

Based on Recent Trends Alone, Monday Should be a Monster Day Up

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If you closed your eyes and just looked at statistical data Monday should be a monster day.  Not only is it a Monday which (without having the data in front of me) I'd guess accounted for anywhere from 60-70% of the gains from the March 2009 lows, but the first day of the month has been a wicked good day for the market for well over a decade.  [Sep 30, 2010: Amazing Stat - Over 12 Year Period You Made More on 1st Day of the Month then All Other Days Combined]  Therefore next Monday, which is a combination of both situations would appear to be a 'no brainer' eh?  Did I mentioned it's a POMO day as well? (icing on the cake!)  "The sun'll come out POMOrrow....."

Of course we have elections Tuesdays and the Fed's gift giving announcement Wednesday, so it will be interesting to see if people get off their hands and do their normal front running ahead of these now ridiculously obvious trends (that just keep on working, despite being discounted to no end).

p.s. the PCE deflator in today's GDP report (which I won't even bother to 'analyze' as it is revised 3x to Sunday in the coming few months) is 2.3%... that is supposed to be the Fed's TOP tool for gauging inflation.  And that was a reading as of Sep 30 - commodities have continued to ramp through October. So therefore if the guise that Ben wants inflation is the true reason for QE2, what more does he want?  Of course that's if you believe the things coming out of his mouth.  Which you shouldn't.  [Sep 22, 2010: Bernanke Lied to Us]  Ben has found his weapons of mass destruction and will act accordingly, regardless of the facts on the ground.  Screwflation is alive and well.

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