Friday, September 17, 2010

"Running Out of Losers" Screen

Generally I like to pick stocks to shorts that are exhibiting very poor relative strength, i.e. below key moving averages - especially the 50/200 day.  Aside from improving your odds of continued weakness, if the stock moves against you there is a clearly defined level to stop out from (when the stock clears resistance).  An alternative that also provides opportunities to short is to find stocks that are very extended to the upside, and nowhere near any support level, but that tends to be more dangerous because those situations can (a) extend for much longer than anticipated and (b) be populated by "I am shorting on valuation" crowds, who get constantly squeezed out.  Stop out levels are more arbitrary.

Turning to stocks who have not participated much in this now familiar "V shape on little volume" bounce, the pickings are getting slim.  Criteria used via
  • Market cap > $300M
  • Price > $10
  • Average volume > 200K
  • Below 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages
(ETFs included)

Example chart:

I've split the list into 2 groups to make it easier to read - above $1B market cap and below.  If after this strong of a bounce you find yourself in ownership of this sort of a company, one must ask why said firm is exhibiting such weakness.

Above $1B - 70 Names

Ticker Company  Market Cap
LFC China Life Insurance Co. Ltd.       112,456
V Visa, Inc.        57,445
BA Boeing Co.        45,789
DB Deutsche Bank AG        38,137
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation        24,835
VIP Vimpel-Communications        18,821
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc.        13,162
FE FirstEnergy Corp.        11,047
SWN Southwestern Energy Co.        11,044
WMB Williams Companies, Inc.        10,781
WY Weyerhaeuser Co.          8,551
LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings          7,661
UPL Ultra Petroleum Corp.          5,989
TZA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares          5,618
CREE Cree Inc.          5,593
WHR Whirlpool Corp.          5,516
SLM SLM Corporation          5,451
QEP QEP Resources, Inc.          5,202
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc.          4,983
VMC Vulcan Materials Company          4,767
AVGO Avago Technologies Limited          4,608
IGT International Game Technology          4,501
IRM Iron Mountain Inc.          4,081
HRB H&R Block, Inc.          4,001
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.          3,736
EFX Equifax Inc.          3,708
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500          3,278
OC Owens Corning          3,208
NAV Navistar International Corp.          3,052
NSM National Semiconductor Corporation          2,963
COG Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation          2,897
XCO EXCO Resources Inc.          2,858
BWC The Babcock & Wilcox Company          2,557
DLM Del Monte Foods Co.          2,468
SNDA Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd.          2,422
FNFG First Niagara Financial Group Inc.          2,381
SM SM Energy Company          2,312
JOE The St. Joe Company          2,285
LII Lennox International, Inc.          2,277
BOH Bank of Hawaii Corporation          2,204
ATLS Atlas Energy, Inc.          2,151
TCB TCF Financial Corporation          2,099
VLY Valley National Bancorp          2,093
KWK Quicksilver Resources Inc.          2,087
FMER FirstMerit Corporation          1,898
TPX Tempur Pedic International Inc.          1,876
USO United States Oil          1,850
CFFN Capitol Federal Financial          1,849
DF Dean Foods Co.          1,837
RGC Regal Entertainment Group          1,811
ATHR Atheros Communications Inc.          1,788
CSL Carlisle Companies Inc.          1,773
WSO Watsco Inc.          1,689
OMI Owens & Minor Inc.          1,682
CHSI Catalyst Health Solutions, Inc.          1,679
SLAB Silicon Laboratories, Inc.          1,611
INT World Fuel Services Corp.          1,494
MIR Mirant Corporation          1,466
AMMD American Medical Systems Holdings          1,447
IBKC IberiaBank Corp.          1,327
NAT Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd.          1,260
PWRD Perfect World Co., Ltd.          1,251
ASIA AsiaInfo-Linkage,Inc.          1,181
KCG Knight Capital Group Inc.          1,175
PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc.          1,119
SKX Skechers USA Inc.          1,104
MDAS MedAssets, Inc.          1,070
CISG Cninsure Inc.          1,037
WWE World Wrestling Entertainment Inc.          1,013
GBCI Glacier Bancorp Inc.          1,005

Below $1B - 44 Names

Ticker Company  Market Cap
EXP Eagle Materials Inc.             998
PCX Patriot Coal Corporation             988
ETJ Eaton Vance Risk-Managed Divers             985
SAFM Sanderson Farms, Inc.             983
SFY Swift Energy Co.             972
PNM PNM Resources, Inc.             966
CRK Comstock Resources Inc.             958
FUL HB Fuller Co.             947
POOL Pool Corp             937
SGMS Scientific Games Corporation             926
EZPW EZCORP Inc.             917
SYNA Synaptics Inc.             913
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp.             875
LEAP Leap Wireless International Inc.             856
FMBI First Midwest Bancorp Inc.             826
RLD RealD Inc.             819
PVTB Privatebancorp Inc.             809
QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ             781
CMO Capstead Mortgage Corp.             779
ARTC ArthroCare Corporation             692
HIBB Hibbett Sports, Inc.             663
PACW PacWest Bancorp             661
FEIC FEI Co.             660
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply Inc.             645
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc.             618
AEIS Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.             613
REN Resolute Energy Corporation             566
GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.             560
DGIT DG FastChannel, Inc.             528
UEPS Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc.             514
AMAG AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc.             488
NTRI NutriSystem Inc.             480
BWS Brown Shoe Co. Inc.             478
GDP Goodrich Petroleum Corp.             473
EPIQ EPIQ Systems, Inc.             468
AVAV AeroVironment, Inc.             468
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc.             409
MED Medifast Inc.             407
ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.             406
RINO RINO International Corporation             404
CBEY Cbeyond, Inc.             365
MAKO MAKO Surgical Corp.             353
QDEL Quidel Corp.             328
ORN Orion Marine Group, Inc             313

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