Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Nice Base Building in Las Vegas Sands (LVS)

Unlike many stocks which are extremely overextended, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has been doing little the past 2 weeks.  In fact it is on day 11 of creating a narrow base.  From these bases we tend to get substantial moves - the question of course is in which direction.  If the S&P 500 itself were not so extended, this would be a very appealing place to jump into the name... a close above $33 would be a nice signal that the stock might be ready to embark on a new run upward.   On the other hand that gap at just over $30 is also calling out.  One to keep an eye on in the next few days.

As for the greater market, bears simply have nothing right now.  We've had the "pop" over resistance (S&P 1131) but the 'trap' trade (pop and then trapping of bulls on a reversal) has not happened yet.  Unless the bears can at least break the S&P 500 below 1131 (on a closing basis) there is little to get excited about for the forces of dark.   A close below that level might bring some energy to that side of the ledger, but judging from the short squeezes going on in countless stocks the past 2 weeks I think most shorts are simply hiding in their caves, trying to find some balm to cure their singed fur.

For now, the story is the same - overextended, overbought but not selling off in many stocks (and the greater indexes).  All selloffs mild, and most not lasting for more than a few hours.  A few momo names retreating a bit but not even falling to their 10 day moving average.... due to being so extended. Until these conditions changes, the bulls own the party.

Long Las Vegas Sands in fund; no personal position

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