Thursday, September 23, 2010

Bookkeeping: Adding to Index Shorts on "Good" Housing Data

It is amazing how expectations set the table for what is good or bad.  August existing home sales buoyed the market despite being down 19% year over year v a putrid August 2009.  There was no improvement versus July 2010's 'hangover' from the tax credits.  These are not "good number" in any shape or form, other than 'better than expected'.  And just like that Europe has been forgotten in a market with the attention span of a gnat.

Whatever the case it rallied the S&P 500 up to 1129ish, so this allows us an entry point right below the pivot point of S&P 1131.  I am shorting some TNA and BGU at these levels - pretty mild positions, about 2% each, and if the S&P 500 breaks over 1133-1134ish or so, I'll cover as it will mean this morning's selloff was nothing but a great buying opportunity on the path to S&P 2000.   Otherwise my initial downside goal is S&P 1117 (200 day simple moving average).

(as always in the real world, I'd just go long TZA/BGZ but to better represent short v long exposure I am using these instruments instead)

Short TNA/BGU in fund; no personal position


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