Tuesday, August 17, 2010

S&P 1088.50 Gap Filled (to the Upside) - Now What?

The gap created by the "gap down" last Thursday morning @ S&P 1088.50 is now "filled" - another reason I hesitated to press any shorting activity despite the break of S&P 1086/1087.   For whatever reason, upside gaps on indexes can take many weeks (if not a few months) to fill, whereas downside gaps seem to fill in very short order.  This one only took 3 days.

Now what?

Good question.  Such a difference when you look at things in the simple v exponential world.

In the exponential world we have a quite large mess ahead as almost all key moving averages are converging.  That area should provide quite a pivot point; either it will be resistance or a support (if we rush through it).  Since this level provided no support on the way down last week, I am not sure if it will provide much resistance on the way up.  We might soon find out.

In the simple moving average world (which has seemed to be more important of late) - the 50 day moving average has moved up from 1086 to 1088 over the past few days.   And the 200 day has moved up from 1115 to 1116.  So we can take that range of 1085 to 1115 we've been playing with, and move it up slightly to 1088 to 1116.  In between 1088 and 1116 there is not much to say other than we're back to the bipolar market.

So we'll wait and see how things play out... there are a lot of broken chart out there, but so many things go from extremely overbought to extremely oversold in just days.  (the semiconductors are case in point)  I do remain amazed the market is almost completely ignoring the plummeting 10 year bond yield; it fell another 10 basis points yesterday (2.68 to 2.58%!!)  We're almost back to March 2009 panic yields.... yet it's "no sweat" apparently.   This is yet another that I'd expect at least some oversold bounce in.  TBT ETF for a short term trade??

2 years view

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