Thursday, August 12, 2010

Bookkeeping: Selling Index Longs

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My amusement of the day is over in terms of quick trading around the indexes.  While not yet at "the gap" of S&P 1088.50, I am selling here in the mid S&P 1086s as this is the 50 day simple moving average.  I assume those extra 2 points will come at some point, but I don't want to sit and watch the screen all day for that extra point or two.  The 'thesis' of the trade did come true... and that was that dip buyers would come in, and rather quickly.  Hence, I was able to offset (and more) the losses I had by putting on downside index hedges this morning, plus avoided the losses that would have come from 'sticking with the trade'.



I am a bit confused by the action today - not so much the indexes, but the individual sector action.  The strength in commodities really is bewildering considering the dollar is up, so there is no "weak dollar" commodity play... and the main reason we are selling off is a slowdown in the U.S. & China so there is no "strong growth" commodity play.  But for whatever reason commodities seem to be the leaders today.  I'm scratching my head on this one.

Similar thought process on the market right here.  How it reacts from here to the end of the day will be interesting.  I am looking at 3 main ranges right now
  1. Below 1086/1087
  2. Between 1086/1087 and 1115
  3. Above 1115
For intermediate term positioning either scenario 1 or 3 would be best... the chopfest in scenario 2 is mind numbing.

p.s. another bad sign for the intermediate term is the semi sector.  Semis are a leading indicator and this is not something you want to see out of our leadership.  That said, in the NEAR term the semis might be oversold... but that does not fix the intermediate term issue.


Long story short, a lot of warning signs are flashing - hence it is time to not press bets... the propensity to lose many sheckles when trying to make a few is too high.  There will be easier times in the market than right now. In a perfect world, we go up to fill that gap at S&P 1088.50 and then roll right back down below 1085... that would be a nice welcome mat for the bears.

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