Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Bookkeeping: Covering Whirlpool (WHR) Short

I am torn on covering Whirlpool (WHR) as it has broken to new lows which is something you want when betting against a stock (just as you want the opposite when you are long).  Unfortunately nothing works in a vacuum in this market and the S&P 500 is right at the 200 day exponential moving average, hence is prone to bounce here off 1096ish.  With any bounce almost all risk assets will jump.

On the other hand if this level does not hold as support, the market could be facing more serious trouble and covering will be extremely premature.   Today's close will be an important event.

So we'll see how it looks in retrospect but for now I am going to cover the short I created in 2 pieces, a purchase for half at $83.70 late last week, and half at $86.04 this week (cost basis $84.87), and out around $80.30.  This is roughly a 5.5% gain. (I'll be covering in a few minutes)

If the market were in a different spot (i.e. far above the 200 day, or far below it) my decision process would be easier.  i.e. I'd be pressing the short if the S&P 500 was materially below the 200 day, and covering without question if the S&P 500 was materially above the 200 day.  Since we're at an inflection point, it's much more hazy.

No position


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