I continue to feel like I am in quicksand these past 3-4 weeks. The market is making herky jerky moves but much of it happens on specific days in premarket and in an opening salvo of buy orders in the first 30 minutes of the day; if you are not positioned for it overnight you get little benefit. I read Monday or Tuesday of this week that the market had been down 4 of the previous 5 sessions (at the time) yet the S&P 500 was up 1% in that time frame... that more or less explains the current nature of the market. To make money on the indexes this week you had to be locked and loaded long coming into a slew of data Monday morning. Outside of that day, we've had 3 days of "meh".
Thus far the bulls continue to hold the ball as the all important S&P 1114 area is holding well. Tomorrow is a lot like an earnings report day, except for the entire market due to the labor data. I frankly don't even know what the market wants now that we've passed the "good news is better for the market stage" and into the "we miss our free money from Ben" stage now that Quantitative Easing 1 has been over for quite a few months. Does the market want labor market improvement tomorrow, which reduces the chances of QE2 (or at least pushes it out further down the road?), or does the market want more bad news so cheap and easy money is handed to the speculator class in droves to "improve the economy:"? I'm sure really bad news would spook the market immediately but with some reflection it might make the Wall Street class giddy knowing the next round of gifts is all but assured.
With that and with the choppy nature of things, I am selling the TNA I bought early in the week on the break over S&P 1120. With this type of instrument you need some sort of sustained move, preferably in short order, and this has not happened. Tomorrow's headline risk can cause the market to drop (or jump) 10-20 S&P points very easily but now we have a short term bipolar reaction which is like flipping a coin, and I don't want to face that with a levered ETF. So I will sell this bugger for a 2% loss.
At this point I want to see the S&P 500 well over 1132 to jump back in; that could easily be premarket tomorrow at 8:31 AM. Or not.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Bookkeeping: Closing Direxion Bullish Small Cap 3x (TNA) Ahead of Labor Data
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows