Friday, July 2, 2010

Two Markets That Have Held Up Well in the Global Selloff: India and Indonesia

I follow global markets quite closely, and I've noticed 2 markets that have held in very well despite the global selloff.  Both are in Asia, and while many other markets there see days of -2% these will generally fall 0.3% or even be in the green many times.

India is well known... and by the way raised interest rates overnight for the 3rd time to try to reign in growth/inflation (talk about a bipolar world)

Less well knows is Indonesia which is my sleeper pick for the next half decade+. [Apr 1, 2010: Indonesian Market Continues to Shine in 2010; Market at All Time Highs as Country Opens Itself Further to Foreign Investment[May 22, 2009: Indonesia: A Must Own Emerging Market]  [Jul 9, 2009: Indonesia's Star Continues to Rise on Back of Yudhoyono's Re-election  I've had a limit order out there to buy the Indonesian ETF during the last week but the price simply won't come in.

If one believes the global selloff is over in the intermediate term (not a camp I am in) both have pulled back to attractive support levels.

Compare and contrast to China or Brazil....

With that said, unless China's economy is about to burst in U.S. like fashion circa 2008 (I've predicted a lot of bad loans coming from their "Alan Greenspan" like stimulus of early 09), [Feb 16 2009: Is China Pulling an Alan Greenspan?]  [May 27, 2009: How is China Spending Their Stimulus? ... and How Many Loans will go Bad?]  there has to be a valuation case here soon despite a necessary slowing the country is trying to engineer.  Unfortunately the technical set up is horrid and the year has been rough. [Mar 31, 2010:  China's Shangha Composite Falls 5.1% in Q1 2010, 5th Worst in the World]

No positions

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