Thursday, July 29, 2010

That Was a Strange Open

I scratch my head on days like today when the market surges right out of the box on bad economic news ...

So far the early buyers have not been rewarded. 

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell to 1103 at the low, and right now we're below 1102.  This is a key 13 point area between 1100 and 1113 as mentioned yesterday.

We have a case of quite different stories in the 'exponential' versus 'simple' moving averages.

EMA - we broke over multiple key resistance areas and are consolidating, but in decent shape.

SMA - rejected again at the 200 day?

Making things trickier is we have a few reports next week where the market is going to react violently in knee jerk reaction (ISM reports and monthly employment reports).  Even being a bear on the U.S. economy I have been a bit shocked by how quickly some of these economic measures are dropping the past 60 days and that's with the fiscal stimulus still going strong (only halfway through the $787B handout).

Further confusing...10 year below 3% again (bad).  Copper doing well (good).  But silver - which also is used in industrial expansion is weak (bad).  China rebounding (good)... Brazil on fire up 8 days in a row (good).  Multinational earnings very good but almost done, with domestic heavy companies set to take over earnings season next (bad).


I don't take much stock in "consumer sentiment" but it's been horrid all through the recovery as "Main Street" (excluding the upper tier and some of the public sector) lives in a different reality than "Wall Street>  Amazing statistic of the day from David Rosenberg... traditionally during economic expansion (which supposedly we are going through) consumer sentiment is about 100, and in economic contraction it's in the 70s.

Where have we been lately?  In the 50s.

Green shoots.  As long as you are not Joe 6Pack.


EDIT 11:30 by the time it took me to write this and post the charts, we've broken S&P 1100.  Should get interesting here.

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