Thursday, July 29, 2010

It Could be Worse - You Got Vistaprinted! (VPRT)

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The market has turned very choppy as we encounter many multiple cross winds on the charts - you have 1100 as a line in the sand, with S&P 1093/1094 being the exponential 50/200 day moving averages below... but 1113, the 200 day simple moving average above... and then a Fibonacci level up there at 1128, and June intraday highs of 1130.  It's not like it was 3-4 weeks ago when there was 'easy money' to be made in grand moves up and down.  Hence I'm staying smaller and puttering around the edges waiting for easier intermediate term trades.

While the index is relatively benign there is some serious damage going on in quite a few names; my watchlists have some gaping wounds showing in them.  I'm going to start with a sleepy stock, Colgate (CL) which usually is going to move 6-7% in a year, spitting out dividends and boring you to death.  Not today... it appears a couple of company's in the "consumer NON discretionary" are raising fears of pricing pressure.  Translation = deflation potential among America's consumers as weak incomes are causing trade downs and trade "outs".  What Colgate usually does in 4-5 months it is doing in 1 session alone. This would be akin to a high beta name like Baidu moving 35% in a session.


Some smaller tech outside of Akamai Tech (AKAM) is getting bludgeoned - Vistaprint (VPRT) [epic!], Nvidia (NVDA), AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA), Tandem (TNDM).  VPRT does not get much press but during much of 2009 and early 2010 this was an under the radar momo play.






Nvidia would be worse if not for the fact its been going straight down for 3 months.


Even an ag name - Bunge (BG)


Healthcare a safe haven?  Not always. Covance (CVD)




So as one scans potential damage in a portfolio ... it could always be worse. (unless of course you are an unlucky soul who has a large position in any of these)  This type of movement is also showing the penalties remain very high for playing the "earnings gamble"; the ability to lose 25-40% overnight is just not worth the "big score!"


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