Thursday, July 8, 2010

Good Morning Takes S&P 500 Right to 20 Day Moving Average, Within Reach of First Target - Taking Half of Index Long Positions Off

Using the exponential moving average, the S&P 500 has popped right off in the opening 5 to S&P 1067 which is the 20 day moving average.   1070"ish" is here, and 1070 is right around the corner.  This is now the inflection point for many of the moves the past 2 months.  I would declare the 'easy trade' has been made and now things could get chippier as we look towards the 50/200 day moving averages as next resistance.

I'll be looking to roll off index long exposure bought yesterday [Jul 7, 2010: Bookkeeping - Adding Some Long Exposure]  in the low 1040s, with quite a profit.  This gives a big prey kill to the downside last week, and to the upside this week.  If I get one such trade in 4 weeks I am very content, so having 2 within one of our "periods" (4 weeks) is a major bonus.

Since our objective is not maximize profits at ANY risk, but maximize profits at LOWEST risk possible I will take half off the table of my 2 index positions (TNA and SPY calls) right here, and then sell the other half on any move below 1067"ish" to lock in my gains. 

The TNA exposure (7% of portfolio) has advanced about 7% (edit: about 9%) since the early afternoon purchase yesterday while the SPY calls (4% allocation) should be somewhere in the +70% range type of gain.  Will edit this once I get the final numbers.

If the market keeps going straight up through 1070 I'll have the other half to play with.  I will also begin to look at taking some individual equity exposure off - especially that bought below 1020.  A bit more patient with that stuff.


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