Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Economic Data (Lucy) Pulls Football Away from Stock Market (Charlie Brown)

I don't want to blame today's early selling that much on this morning's economic data, because frankly weaker economic data has been ignored for much of the past week and a half as the market wanted to go up, no matter what the facts were.  The market was overdue for some sort of catching of breath after this hectic "risk on" move, and some of the data this morning was just as good of an excuse as any.  However, it did come at a very important moment on the charts of course as a clearance of S&P 1100 would have had Kool Aid running in the streets (I was hoping for it, so I could dump a lot of long exposure into said Kool Aid).

Just fyi - an interesting development; just a few days ago the simple and moving 50 day moving averages were at 1100 and 1094 respectively.  They seem to have converged at 1094.  Which is also where the 200 day exponential moving average is.

Bigger picture, it is more wait and see for now to see if the market ramps right back up in anticipation of Google and the banks later in the week.  The time to be aggressive long was a week and a half ago.  The next time will be on a movement over S&P 1130.  To the downside anything down to 1070 is fine as consolidation of this big move should not be unexpected.  For now I expect more churn as expectations for earnings season have quickly been raised - an identical pattern to the last few periods.  The dichotomy between the economic data and the earnings prowess of the masters of the universe (U.S. multinationals) is fascinating actually.


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