Thursday, July 1, 2010

Dismal Economic News Flow Continues

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ISM Manufacturing, while still expansionary at 56.2, was a massive miss versus the 59 expectation. (I believe last month was 59.7)

Pending home sales index for May came in 30% below April's propped up by government handouts level, and more important a 16% year over year drop versus quite weak levels in 2009.

Again, I cannot stress enough how May, June, July are the key months of real estate in Cramerica.  If there is such weak organic (non government influenced) demand these months, you are not going to see anything positive in October or February. The economy is weakening considerably without government assistance in every part of the economy. 

While I think the GOP is just bluffing with this stalling on extended emergency unemployment benefits, if they are firm on that, this will be another blow as millions are now dependent on government checks (our current era's only stop gap versus soup lines).  I read 2M will lose benefits in the coming weeks with 200K each additional week from here on out if the federal government does not keep sending out checks. 

My thesis that this is indeed one big Great Recession, only interruped by a massive inflow of government/Fed monies creating a false dawn is looking more realistic.  Again, if you throw $3-4 trillion into the economy you can make any economic figure dance... for a while.  So I won't call it a double dip if this trend continues in the next 6 months (even though officially it will be viewed as one).  It was instead 1 big dip interrupted by never seen before levels of intervention aka green shoots.  What should be scary is all the bullets that have been shot and yet here we seem to be descending at roller coaster pace.

Market seems to finally be facing reality again after the premarket markup; will hold these puts for a bit more.

EDIT 10:18 AM - we are now at the S&P 1020 level mentioned in previous post, and reached in premarket before the 'urgent buyer' showed up.

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