Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Bookkeeping: Taking Profits in 1/3rd of Polypore International (PPO) and Tibco Software (TIBX)

As is clearly evident there is no middle ground in the stock market anymore - we either are heading to the double dip recession or it's all gold at the end of the rainbow ahead.  At least the opinion is not changing by the day as it was last week and the week before.  While S&P 1130 is clearly the next target ahead, we have had quite a big move in a short period of time.  With the history of "V shaped bounces" on little volume (of which we are having yet another) of the past year and a half, it is difficult to short (you can do it, but it has to be nimble and timed very well) or even know when to sell since moves go much farther without rest than when human emotion used to be the main part of the market.  Silicon is emotionless.

With that said I am looking for some secondary indicators to give me signals to take profits over and above the Technical Analysis 101 that I use.  Relative Strength is interesting to me simply because I emphasize it in other ways.   Many of our positions are 'extended' if you look at the charts but that doesn't mean the move cannot continue.  So I've decided to take some partial profits in some names where the RSI is at the top end of the recent range (effectively a reading of 68-69) and see if I can buy back 4-5% lower the next time the market drops.  Just some locking in of profits really.  I still have my eye on a few new names but they either are incredibly extended OR have not reported yet so neither choice is what I prefer.

For today, I'm taking 1/3rd off Polypore International (PPO) and Tibco Software (TIBX); unrealized gains (overall) on the former are 14%, on the latter 11%.  Again, just trading the edges of a core position in each.

At this point I will be a buyer on dips until S&P 1100 is broken once more.
Long both positions named in fund; no personal position

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