In retrospect I bought Netflix (NFLX) a bit too early in the correction so my cost basis ended up being too high. First purchases were in the $117-$118s. I did average down at $107.20 last Thursday during the melt down, since the stock held the 50 day moving average in previous sessions despite heavy selling in the broader market, and that latter purchase price point was the 'right one'. Therefore my cost basis overall is $112s, a bit high for my liking - so I decided to sell about 40% of the position on the bounce this AM. I still have a melded gain of about 6.5%; considering the market action since my first purchase that works for me.
Go forward, if the market continues up I expect Netflix to be a star. If this is it for the broader market move, I'd expect support at the 50 day for NFLX where I'll probably try one more long trade, but in the intermediate term if the market breaks old support this one will have to be cut down to size as I'd expect the 50 day to give way.
That does it for the day's trades I believe, barring any major moves in the index. A lot of waxing off for me today. (risk on, risk off) Basically, this is all one big correlation trade but I threw some individual equities in there along with index plays.
We're now in a 30 point range of 1040 to 1070 and what I consider again a "white noise" range (what happens in those 30 points is random and means nothing) better suited for daytraders; I'll let them fight it out with the computers until the market makes some signals on the next intermediate move (higher towards 1100 or back down below 1040) No man's land for now.
Long Netflix in fund; no personal position
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Bookkeeping: Selling 40% of Netflix (NFLX)
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows