Friday, June 4, 2010

Stuck in a Box Again - Sort Of

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Similar to something we saw in latter 2009, the S&P 500 is currently stuck in a wide ranging 'box' - between 1040s on the downside and roughly 1100 on the upside. The late 2009 box was eventually resolved to the upside, but the sideways action was created above all the key moving averages. We are now in the midst of week 3 of a similar box but it is occurring below all key moving averages, so it will be interesting to see if this one can also resolve to the upside. In theory, it should not. Further, the longer we stay below this 200 day moving average the more probability it ends badly.

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While we have had extremes down to the 1040s most of the action has been in about a 30 point box of 1070 to 1100. It remains difficult to do very much outside of daytrading until this is resolved.

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