Friday, June 18, 2010

So Much for the Housing Recovery

Despite a market up almost 80 straight points - effectively a 9 day rally - the housing stocks can't get out of their own way.  As I peruse stocks for the short side of the portfolio many of these names keep popping up.

Considering a government that has been bribing Americans to buy homes for 1.5 years, record mortgage rates, record affordability, and the strongest part of the year for real estate now here - what do these stocks say about a "housing bottom"?  Which a certain talking head has promised for 3 of the past 5 years...

Even scarier - with 7M American households not paying their mortgage, consider the effects if these people were actually facing the old system where you were kicked out after not paying in about 7-9 months.   Can we imagine the inventory situation with 7M more empty homes that need buyers?

Further, can you imagine how damaging even 'normal' mortgage rates of 6% would be on a populace now addicted to easy money?   [Jun 3, 2009: A Country that Cannot Function Without Easy Money]  Dare we think about the end game of 7% mortgages?  What proportion of people who qualify at 5% would have no chance at 6 or  7%?

Anyhow no worries - that guy who screams on financial entertainment TeeVee told me housing bottomed in 2006  2008 2009.

 [Dec 6: What Should Median Home Prices be Today?]

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