Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Quadruple Bottom Holds For Now

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The ever elusive and rare 'quadruple bottom' [tongue in cheek] at S&P 1040 is holding this morning as premarket magic works overtime.   I was hoping for a washout morning (i.e. ugly action) to create a tradeable long side event, but it appears it won't be that easy.  While I was calling yesterday for an oversold rally in the next 48 hours I would have preferred it came with buyers giving up after their support was broken.  So we'll see what happens after the first 10 minutes today. 

Since the stock market has no memory from day to day anymore, and a -3% 90% day can be followed by the exact opposite I won't give much leeway to the puts I added yesterday.  If they begin to work against me in earnest, I will be out... back to cash, and waiting for a new opportunity.  Obviously the market is hanging by its fingernails to the lower of the 2 ranges we have outlined: S&P 1040 to 1070.  If bulls feel comfortable with this morning's proceeding the short term flipping crowd can certainly pull off a 10, 20, 30 S&P point rally since yesterday can be forgotten in an instant.  Unless/until 1040 is broken it is hard to press shorts for now... with the premarket action acting completely independent of yesterday's whoosh down, we remain stuck in the market without memory from day to day.

Intermediate term, everything remains bearish - but nothing in a straight line.  Headline risk is high on Friday premarket as the jobs # will cause the bipolar traders to either believe all is well in the world again or the Earth will implode.  Impossible to game the reaction ahead of time.

EDIT 8:30 AM - nevermind all that, the ADP private employment data came in horrid and premarket magic was sunk.  Back to roughly S&P 1036.  In that case, as long as the market stays below 1040, everything is on plan.   Again, I find it hilarious that 1 data point changes everyone's views but Ritalin nation has the attention span of a gnat, so our mood changes by the minute in the Wall Street casino.  Nothing really changed from 8:14 AM to 8:16 AM in the nation's economy...

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