Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Fascinating S&P 500 Chart

After the rally of 7 S&P points (for no reason) in premarket post 6:30 AM, the regular session has proven to be the bane of the "urgent premarket buyer" yet again with not only those 7 S&P points regained to the downside, but an additional 7.

[click to enlarge]

We have a pretty fascinating set up right now with a mix of simple and exponential 200 days creating all types of headfakes.  I am showing both - you can see once we broke down below the green 200 day SIMPLE moving average of 1111 (up from 1110 yesterday) we've taken the express train to the blue 200 day EXPONENTIAL moving average of 1098.  Where we sit as we type.  A close between the two 200 day moving averages is going to offer nothing more than confusion. :)

Quite amazing how technicals have come to dominate this market...

With the 200 day simple moving average broken again, one must take a neutral stance rather than the short term bullish view when the index traded over that level.  Which is why I pointed to 1120 as an area I wanted to wait for before changing my stripes.  If the market falls below the 200 day exponential and sticks there?  Back to skewing bearish.  I'd mark S&P 1070 as the next level of support in that case.

Obviously things are very fluid here as we chop and flop around a series of moving averages - which change the near term dynamics.   Sitting on hands remains the best course until we have a better picture of events.  Should be an interesting last hour.

EDIT: 300 Dow points until I can break out my hat.

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