Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Bookkeeping: Adding to First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG)

Despite a massive glut of natural gas in what appears to be a slowing economy (hence even less need for natural gas) the computers have been loving it the past 2 weeks.  Since we are all slaves to the algo's and fundamentals (supply v demand) are for weenies, I'll continue to respect the price action.  In thinking about adding long exposure my first thought was F5 Networks (FFIV) but every time I make a transaction on this name the past 3 weeks the market reverses; so I am want to be generous to bulls and hence won't add to the position.

Instead, I'll add a 1% allocation to First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas (FCG) which is moving up solidly and today looks to have broken over a recent range.  Plus they both start with F.

While this intraday break over the 200 day is positive, it is seemingly so obvious.  And shall we really bet on a 3rd day in a row of +0.8% in premarket?  Seems improbable - if it continues each day we'd be up 4% in premarket alone this week.  But since everyone is now a technical currency analyst, we have to adhere to any changes in conditions, and respect a market that can go up in premarket 4 out of 5 days just like most of 2009.  Over S&P 1120 I'll feel more comfortable, and from that point until we reach 2010 highs we'll be subject to hearing about head and shoulders formations, but that's a body part for another day.

Long First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas in fund; no personal position


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