Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Bookkeeping: Will Cover Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) Short on the Open

A lot of times things in the stock market make little sense.  For example, coffee and sugar are rallying - coffee at a 23 month high.  So how do you play that?  According to CNBC's Joe Terranova on Fast Money - you buy a company who sells do it yourself coffee in the U.S.  A sensible connection? (higher coffee prices mean Americans will rush out to buy K-cups?)  Not in my eyes - frankly I'd expect higher coffee prices to be a negative to margins but what do I know about stock market logic.  The market is about perception and if this is 'the trade' I don't want to get in front of it.  My shorts are simply technical in nature so this is a piece of fundamental news (a commodity surging) combined with some simplistic logic, which can make the trade go awry.  I will stand out of the way and take a quick 2.5ish% loss and look for something not subject to "Terranova logic"

I will be covering on the open on Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) which is mid $25s in premarket aka its 50 day moving average. 

In a shocking development I see S&P 500 futures up strongly in premarket!!

No position


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