With S&P 1040 broken the floodgates should open nicely for bears in the closing 25 minutes. I bought another tranche of puts around S&P 1046 (these are SPY July 103s). I'll sell some of my puts into the close in 15 minutes but I am really hoping for one of those dark opens tomorrow which unlike today I will consider the real swoosh. My 'teflon' stocks, while down, are still mostly hovering near their 20 day moving averages - I'd like to see real pain inflincted before feeling capitulation has happened.
I will be anticipating an oversold bounce in the next 48 hours. If you are talented you can try to play it; but for most simply staying out of the way is the best course of action. Just as we rallied 8.2% in 10 sessions (wax on!), we've now lost it all in 6 sessions. (wax off!) The move to S&P 1130 on yuan revaulation a week ago Monday was one great headfake. We're down almost 100 S&P points since.
EDIT 3:55 PM - well looks like we're going to hold S&P 1040 after all on the close; an urgent buyer rushed in here at the close because he just had to be in on this market in the closing moments on a -3% day. ;) Or maybe some short covering although this would not seem the place to do it. An "up" open in premarket tomorrow would not be reasonable based on today's action and I'd expect it to be faded. I took some SPY put exposure off the table, but kept the lion's share.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Bookkeeping: Will Be Selling Some SPY Puts 3:59 PM
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows