Thursday, June 10, 2010

Bookkeeping: Closing SL Green Realty (SLG)

My timing on REITs has been horrific the past year and a half; I will wipe away the egg on my face yet again and sell SL Green (SLG) on strength here.  If the stock moves over $64 it could begin a new leg up but I want to use our +3% days (which now come every 4th or 5th session) to lighten up on losers.  I have about a 0.5% exposure left over in which I am taking a 11% loss on.  Which is better than the 16% loss I was staring at yesterday.

I am interested in how bullish many people have become today... at this point this bounce is no different than the two 3% moves we've had in the past 10 sessions.  A print anywhere between 1040 and 1100 really means very little in my vision; we're just ping ponging in a big range.  In retrospect perhaps one of these times we'll look back and say "that 3% move actually meant something" but no one can tell yet.  Until we get over the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500 I see little to get excited about. That said, I see today easily ending at highs of the days as computers rush in to mark up the close.

I now have 9 outstanding limit short orders, each about 1.5 to 2.5% in exposure.  I am hoping 4-5 hit if we get a Kool Aid rush tomorrow and get near 1100 on the S&P.  If this is a new V shape bounce (of which I believe there is a 10% chance happening - i.e. unlikely) I will cover those as all entry points are very near resistance areas.  But for now I still need many of these stocks to rally another 3-6%.  As I wrote last week this market is not easy for the bears even thought we're in a downtrend as the multiple +3% days have dashed many a profit for those who do not take their gains immediately.  Holding risk overnight long or short is a pure gamble nowadays as each day ignores the previous.  The market's attention span gets shorter and shorter, it used to be that of a 7 year old... now it's closer to a 3 year old.

No position


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