Friday, June 4, 2010

Bookkeeping: Bought Jun 108 SPY Puts for an Intraday Hedge

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The market actually held up pretty well there for the first few hours of the day. I was expecting worse considering the conditions forming for a nice double dip in 2011, and the continued European problems. S&P 1080 was holding up as the day's pivot point so I am going to use it as my area to play around for the rest of the day. I bought the June 108 SPY puts now that this level broke, and will use it as a stop loss (+/- 2 point-ish) and see if we can get a nice close at lows of the day. 1070 has been a good support level so my first thought is to sell some if 1070 is hit, but if 1070 breaks try again with a push down towards the lower end of this big range... (1040s). For now I'm just trying to get some offset to some losses taken in the long side of the portfolio although we remain in an extremely high cash position, having not chased the crazy up and downs of the past few weeks. In the bigger picture we really have not moved much in a few weeks and simply in the middle of a white noise range where the day to day movements mean nothing. S&P 1062 or S&P 1082 both really are no different at this point. As I've stated for a few weeks we either need to get over the 200 day moving average to the upside or break 1040s to the downside. Everything else is just details.

Due to headline risk I'll probably be out of these puts by end of day (if they are working, otherwise I'll be exiting due to stopping myself out) but in theory bad closes on Fridays should lead to bad Monday opens. But with our premarket futures friends always hanging around, this rule has been banished for most of the past year and a half. Short of BP pulling off a miracle with that oil well I just don't see any positive catalyst now that the US is being shown to be an economy completely dependent on government and Fed stimulus.... or China.

We are setting up for a very interesting post election scenario as I expect incumbents to be ransacked [Jan 20, 2010: What Can (Scott) Brown Do for You? Not Much... if you are an Incumbant] by a public sick of partisanship and continued drunken sailor spending, but with an economy that needs the steroids of constant government spending to show a facade of growth. [Nov 18, 2009: Our Economy is on Steroids] Perhaps Bernanke can take rates to -2%....

On another note I am wondering if I should just sell everything in the long portfolio and buy Salesforce.com, VMWare, Apple, and Baidu. Why bother with anything else - these stocks could trade at 60-80x EPS (ex-Apple) and people still want them.

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