Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Back to Test S&P 1108

Now we all sit and wait on the computers to see if they push us through.  There used to be a time when levels like this, once broken, were traps for the obvious trade (i.e. further upside) but in the past few years we hardly ever reverse right back through a level 'trapping' either long or shorts.  I assume this is due to the influence of HAL9000.

Tomorrow is the only day of the week I see any economic news that will actually move markets, so it is the only day premarket magic is threatened.   As we have seen for well over a year, in the absence of news we almost always go up in premarket but generally it is 0.3%, 0.4%ish.  This week has been very special since we have received back to back 0.8% days on really no news in particular.

But for now all the market is a Euro trade - the bad unemployment and retail data meant nothing ... bad unemployment hurt the market for 2 days, and retail data hurt the market for 25 minutes..

Now that $1.2250 has been broken, the next levels are $1.24 and $1.26.  Since the algorithms have some sort of Euro to S&P correlation maybe $1.26 = S&P 1130 or whatnot if and when.

Looking ahead, we have end of month/quarter approaching and for those who believe fund managers stuff the market up ahead of the quarter you are bullish.  Since economic matters are just a sideshow, I guess just cheer the Euro and premarket magic until July when earnings season starts anew.

(if we break S&P 1108 I'll probably throw an index trade on ti the long side for the remainder of the day at least)  EDIT: with the S&P 500 over 1108 I am buying index positions - the normal TNA, and SPY calls.  I'll hold unless 1105 breaks to the downside.  As mentioned earlier, a reversal would be too cute today after yesterday's performance so I could see a squeeze into the close.  There is really no issue until 1120 if 1108 holds..


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