Thursday, June 24, 2010

Anecdotal Reading of Trading Blogs = Complacency

My anecdotal scanning of a myriad of 'swing trading' type of financial blogs show a lot of people antsy to buy here as they believe we are (a) oversold and (b) there must be a mark up into quarter end. I don't know whether I want to respect these folks views or to fade them.  We are in nowhere man's land once more... 1040 at the bottom and the 200 day, let's call it 1100+ at the top.  It's such a big range and we are almost smack dab in the middle.

"Fast money" types are seeking a negative open (as we had today) and then a reversal late in the day to make a quick and dirty foray.  It won't mean much other than for the daytrader, HFT groups - but the oversold bounce scenario hangs out there.  It just appears everyone is looking for it which makes me doubt it is going to be 'that easy'. For guys like me trying to build intermediate term positions, it is just not an area you can do much except trade around the edges and stay small.  It has been one punishing week, especially if you drank the Kool Aid of the premarket bounce Monday morning.  (yuan revaluation - hooray)

S&P 1070 continues to be a fascinating spot for me since that is the level the market bounced off multiple times throughout May.  Why 1070? Because it had essentially been Dow 10,000, at least in May.  And you know what that means - it's hat time.

On a sidenote, the Euro is up while the S&P 500 is down.  Did HAL9000 move onto the next trade?

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