Friday, June 4, 2010

+430,000 Jobs of Which 411,000 Were Census

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On first glance this is a massive disappointment as this means negligible job gains in the private sector. Once we see the birth death figure which I assume will come in around 150,000 you can see the actual measured job growth (excluding BLS fantasy) will be negative.

Main positive is the drop in unemployment rate to 9.7% (as measured by current construction, but as measured pre early 90s is quite a few points higher) but we'll have to see if this is because countless more Americans dropped out of the work force (labor rate participation). Remember in America if you are not actively looking for a job for 4 weeks you are no longer unemployed.

Average hourly pay increased 0.3% which seems to be the main positive I can see. Hours worked up mildly from 34.1 to 34.2.

Still have to dig into the U-6, temporary workers, and other figures.

Again, first blush strikes incredibly negative. Goldman Sachs increased their estimates yesterday from 500K growth to 600K growth and they have been nailing these calls.

If Biden and Obama think this is a 'strong' job report... wow.

EDIT 8:45 AM - yep, the unemployment rate fell in large part because Americans dropped out of the workforce. Not good.
  • In May, the civilian labor force participation rate edged down by 0.2%
    percentage point to 65.0 percent.

Temporary employees +31,000

U-6 dropped from 17.1% to 16.6% (was 16.8% the previous month) which is good but I believe would also be impacted by 0.2% of the US workforce essentially giving up.

EDIT 9:00 AM - Birth death model accounted for 215K jobs! Welcome to the Matrix.

Ladies and Gentlemen let's get ready to tummmmmble!


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