Tuesday, June 8, 2010

20 Day Moving Average Crosses Below 200 Day

Today it appears the 20 day moving average is firmly below the 200 day, which is bearish.  More bearish will be if or when the 50 day crosses over.  There is about a 27 point variance between the two, so it might take 2-3 weeks for that to happen - depending on how low the S&P 500 trades in the interim.  50 days ago the S&P 500 was in the 1180s, so each day that passes we lose one of those days and add a print 100+ points lower, so the slope of that curve has the potential to accelerate downward fast.

As for the market, S&P 1050 has held support in the overnight session.  Yet again we have a wonderful premarket where if you bought at 7 AM and sold at 9:15 AM you could of skimmed a nice 5-6 S&P points.  The high this morning has been around S&P 1055 so if we show an ability to bounce off the 1050 level and stay there I'll drop much of the put exposure to lock in profits and buy it back on a break below 1050. If 1050 breaks again, the low 1040s is the line in the sand everyone is watching.  It seems inevitable we test it... and frankly based on the trend we break it.  I really see no reason for this morning's bounce other than  Fed chairman saying he believes everything is ok.  Based on his track record it is amusing people still give him any credence... but we need our idols in dark times.

From the long side there is little to do right now.  The market will be prone to oversold bounces that can be dramatic as seen by multiple +3% days but the trend is obviously down.  The only way to really play the upside moves is the same way the quants do, jump into the proper ETFs at the right moments and pile right back out when 'the trade' is over.  But this is not something constructive to building up a portfolio of intermediate term long positions. 

I continue to build shopping lists of names I am interested in on the long side.  I have my eyes on the few momo names (about 6-7 names) which thus far have been mostly immune to selloffs.  One would think before this is said and done the momo babies will be thrown out with the bathwater but for now they remain a hiding place.  I always say the generals need to be shot before we can have a true bottom so I am looking at your Chipotle, VMWare, Salesforce.com and Baidu.

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