Thursday, May 6, 2010

S&P 1150 Broke

The market has fallen and cannot get up...

How quickly things change. Hard to really place any meaningful new positions ahead of a news event such as tomorrow morning's labor data*, or with the headline risk that comes out of Europe each night.

*I need to revise my guestimate for tomorrow's job gains, I was thinking well over 400K but I heard on CNBC someone say that they don't need as many census workers as they anticipated because the pool of applicants is so overqualified versus previous years. That's what happens when all your engineers and scientists are now unemployed since their jobs are in Mumbai. But at least they are efficient census workers. So if there is only say 175K census workers versus the 400K I was anticipating the number might come in around 200-250K instead?


For the bulls, a break of some support level and then a late day reversal with preferably a close at the high of the day is what they are seeking.

For bears, after months of news not 'mattering' and being laughed off the airwaves and blogosphere... well it is funny how quickly things change.

I don't really see any support below 1150 until the 200 day moving average of 1100. Perhaps I am missing something obvious. Only pit stop is that gap in between at 1124. I would think the market is getting oversold here and prone for a snapback rally soon. But we've seen moves continue in 1 direction much longer than normal the past few years.

Until things become more clear...

Swimming in cash


EDIT 2:15 PM - wow, 1136 hit. I was stopped out of my SPY puts not 26 hours ago at 1172! Could that nasty first gap at 1124 actually fill today?

EDIT 2:35 PM - are you kidding, 1126.

EDIT 2:38 PM - gap filled! 1124

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