Thursday, May 6, 2010

"The Generals" (Leadership Stocks) Flashing Trouble

I always like to keep an eye on the leadership stocks i.e. "momo" favorites of the institutional fast money. Let us exclude Apple (AAPL) which at this point exists in it's own sphere of world domination - and Goldman Sachs (GS) which is in a whole 'nother sphere - many of the other 'go to' names are flashing trouble.

The amazing thing is *how quickly* it has happened - some of these stocks were gliding along their 20 day moving average 3-5 sessions ago without a care in the world... and in a span of a few days are now below the 50 day moving average. Now.... due to the relentless rally without pause from mid February to late April there are huge air pockets of no support, just as we see in the S&P 500.

Here are some of the names

Priceline (PCLN)

Visa (V)

Freeport McMoran & Gold (FCX)

Amazon (AMZN)

Normally I would include Google (GOOG) but since the Chinese blowup it has been acting horribly - whereas the "Chinese Google" is acting as if there is not a care in the world.

Now theoretically these are all "short set ups"... on any bounce to the 50 day moving average from below you can put on low risk shorts with stop losses on any break above. That said, except for a few weeks here, and a few weeks there the past 14 months "theory" has meant little.


Looking away from individual names, ETFs have taken on a far more important role versus even 3-4 years ago as computerized algo programs live to trade these things...

....we mentioned the Financial ETF (XLF) a few days ago as a key tell - thus far it is holding in.

Two others to keep an eye on... the consumer discretionary sector as represented by SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) was near (at?) an all time high a few weeks ago, [Apr 14, 2010: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) Approaching All Time High] it has drawn back to support but still is ok.

And the commercial REIT iShares Real Estate ETF (IYR) - as "extend and pretend" has become the U.S. mantra (just don't call is Japan) - is among the strongest.

No positions

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