Friday, May 14, 2010

Dancing Along S&P 1130 for 3 Hours

Remarkable how this market can go to a specific point and then stay range bound in a tight range for hours on end. Usually for the past year it's been a big move up in the opening moments of a session (due to premarket magic) and then sideways action for 5+ hours. Today we have a plunge and then going on 3 hours now kissing S&P 1130. If this level can hold, one would assume shorts cover and buyers come in late in the day. If not, it could be an ugly close.

With this current action I am going to adjust my strategy a bit for my short exposure. Earlier it was just "hold unless 1140 is broken" but since I have some nice profits, I am going to take 1/3rd off the table here in both the short TNA (a very modest position) and will sell 1/3rd of the SPY puts - both at solid profits with this batch. With the rest I'll either cover over 1136-1137 on any late day rally to lock in much smaller profits (down from 1140 I noted earlier) or if the market breaks down I'll make a decision in the closing 10 minutes on what to do (most likely I'd take another 1/3rd off, leaving only 1/3rd for weekend risk).


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