Friday, May 14, 2010

Bookkeeping: Sold Another 1/3rd of SPY May 114 Puts

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Following up on the strategy outlined earlier this afternoon, I sold the second "third" of SPY puts into the close to reduce weekend "headline" risk. S&P 1130 did hold. For now. Frankly, I don't know what can be announced this weekend but let it be known there is a 98 out of 100 chance they will gun futures for no good reason. One morning we are going to walk into a Monday morning and see -4% premarket to make up for all the nonsense Monday mornings we've had the past 9-10 months.

On a more serious note, Monday should open down in premarket since people see the emperors' have no clothes. * The rate of descent in the Euro is staggering. If anyone noticed China is at a 11 month low and loses 4 out of every 5 days - ironically it is being hurt because economic growth is so strong and they fear tightening. (if we only all had these problems) Closing at or near the lows of the days should NOT (I repeat, NOT) lead to premarket surging the next morning... only in this nonsense play land does it happen. Instead we should be watching the 'Fast Money' crew talking of Black Monday's.

Either way best case scenario we should retest last Friday's lows (that would be below S&P 1100) before any viable bounce - the only question is if it will be a straight line there or not. I feel zero panic in this market - it all seems so ho hum despite quite a horrific day. If you believe this was just a run of the mill -2% down day, wait until those mutual fund NAV's pop out around 5:30 PM; it's going to be ugly unless you own that utility fund.

I've chosen to keep my remaining 2/3rds TNA ETF short simply because it's a moderate hedge and even if we get our now traditional premarket markup Monday we are far enough down from where I entered that I will simply be giving up unrealized gains. Puts on the other hand can inflict much more pain (or pleasure). For today, pleasure enough to make all long side losses go poof.

[p.s. the markets were up for the week, rejoice - unless you remember almost all gains were Monday in premarket - notice a theme?]

*helicopters are not clothes

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