Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Another Downside Reversal

Barring a miracle here in the last 25 minutes, this does not bode well. The only people who made money today were those who bought the close yesterday and dumped in morning's gains created by the now tired phony premarket - it remains a daytraders market and not a place for 'investing'.

On the economic news front, if you take out Boeing's (BA) impact on durable goods (a very volatile number) it was a quite poor report. So many people only look at headline figures nowadays it is quite pathetic. Yesterday's Case Shiller showed the 6 straight month of home price declines despite record affordability, record mortgage rates, and record handouts by government to get you to buy a home... all these steroids and we still can't stop the market from going from where it 'wants' to. Just wasted money thrown down the rabbit hole. Oh well, just more money to print in the future.

I think the bulls great hope was Superman Geithner could wave his magic wand over Europe and get them to do his bidding. Rumors of such action were rampant yesterday (Oh please Mr Trichet cut your rates to 0 and pledge to buy as much debt as necessary to stop reality from ever happening). Each day that does not happen, the bulls dab their eyes in tears that global moral hazard is not growing ever more. Backstop everything! Print currency! Save us from the reality of a few decades of excess debt by... piling on more debt! Just do it! The hilarity of it all is you can't really hold short positions overnight because you get the announcement as we saw that Sunday night 2 weeks ago and you're down 4% in an instant on the index by Bailout Universe.

Let's see what sort of random action we have in the closing 20 minutes, based on the past 3-4 sessions we could go +/- 1%... which leads to my earlier point. You cannot invest in this market - it's simply a game of algos and daytraders chasing HAL9000. What rhyme or reason can you put to a market that can move +1% in 15 minutes. Or goes up 87 out of 90 Mondays. Or is up in premarket 90 out of 100 days.

p.s. this is the 3rd session of the past 4 where S&P 1090 was a brick wall. Hence we are in a huge 50 point range (1040 to 1090) waiting for an ECB Fed like action ... or pouting/selling by "free market capitalists".


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