Thursday, May 20, 2010

30 Minutes for a Stick Save

So far, S&P 1094 has held up as resistance very well. 30 minutes left to make one more attempt and with people squaring off positions into the close each day due to headline risk (or premarket risk) that would be the logical place to make the run. If they cannot rally this market with the Euro bouncing from such oversold levels, it says something.

A few notes - oil is acting scary and shows me that crude has very little to do these days with supply and demand. It's all about levered up hedge funds and investment banks, and has been for [at least] 3+ years. Thats why oil can go from $70 to $148 to $40 to $85. And that $85 is when the world's largest consumer of it, has inventories up the wazoo. Rather than chasing paper tigers with disclosures in CDOs *this* is the type of stuff the regulators should be all over because it impacts all of us. Or if you want to believe the company line "supply and demand" has just shrunk 30% in a matter of 3 weeks. Because of potential European austerity - yep. Cramer said it well today - the oil contract has just become a stock for hedgies to trade, it has nothing to do with "oil" anymore. It is like being in a hostage situation with the financial cabal as our captors. Until they delever and lo and behold, price discovery.

Other than that, the 10 point swings in the S&P today are astounding... it's back and forth all session and they are happening in such short increments, it's just a license to lose money.

Catching the ultimate bottom is fun and makes for good banter but if you preserved capital and made some hedging moves to the downside it really is not necessary. Most days the past week and a half the fund has made +0.2%, -0.1%, +0.5% etc so there is no need to be a hero and be there at the exact bottom. That doesn't mean I won't try some index plays on the long side somewhere along the way here, but north of the 200 day moving average is the 'safe' place to buy. Everything else is knife catching, and most people trying to get long are doing so as they 'double down' to try to make up losses. A dangerous game.

EDIT 3:55 PM - looks like we will close near the lows of the day which does not bode well for tomorrow AM. Broke the 200 day moving average with a close near or at the lows = not a combo you want to be around as a bull. Maybe the Fed can do an emergency rate cut premarket. Oh yeah, we're already at zilch... nevermind.


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