Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Thus Far, a Perfect Bounce

The bounce off the 20 day moving average noted yesterday continues with our almost traditional premarket markup (it's been missing the past week or so).  We never lose Magical Mondays but the premarket +0.3%, +0.4% markup sometimes comes and goes. If it's one of *those days* the entire day's move has already been completed in the premarket and opening salvo of trades - we go sideways in a 2-3 S&P range all day afterwards.  Now the computers will churn us for 5 hours straight, collecting rebate after rebate while trading Citigroup, AIG, Fannie, Freddie for hours on end as their little electrons click in ecstasy.  Just another day at the office.

Thus far everything is playing out per the script... I (a bit tongue in cheek) said in the last piece Friday after Asia would sell off in error Monday, it would be be time to buy US markets once the knee jerk move down happened. Then yesterday as we hit a support level the buyers rushed in.  It is almost too perfect to take seriously.

The earth shattering 2% correction is over. ;)

With the surprise beat by Apple (AAPL) tonight it's just a matter of how close we get to Thursday's intraday high of 1214ish between now and this afternoon/next morning.  Don't forget the surprise beats that VMWare (VMW) and Juniper Networks (JNPR) will give us as well, although Apple will steal all the oxygen along with 59 of the 60 minutes of "Fast Money" tonight.

As of now I'll place the odds of a double top (bearish) forming in the coming 24-48 hrs as we retrace to 1213 as 0.3% and the odds of a blast off through that level at 99.7%.  That's my complacency talking. 

One of these days we're going to have a good ole fashioned intraday reversal without news... but placing chips anticipating it has been a losers game for a long time.  In theory the market is supposed to provide pain to the most people... and nowadays the most people buy every dip without thinking...even if dips are now a flat day.  But these people have not felt pain in over 2 months.

Until some strange day when humans take back the market from computers, there has only been one man to listen to... he is 7 feet tall, 450 lbs, round and cheery.  And Ben Bernanke is his biggest fan.


Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.

Copyright @2012 FundMyMutualFund.com