Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Selloff Roils US Markets (Ahem) - Changing 5 Day EMA Rule to 6 Day

This is 2 days in a row with pathetic traumatic intraday selloffs of over 0.2%.  Traders are shaken to the core.... but hopefully you bought the dip hand over foot, for this once in a fortnight opportunity to buy stocks on a dip of over 0.3%.

We had mentioned about 3-4 weeks ago that this market has moved slowly but surely along its 5 day exponential moving average since mid February.  No closes below this level unless you "round down" on a point basis.   There have been a handful of days the price has broken below this moving average on an intraday basis such as last Thursday, but rallied late in the day to keep the trend going.  By and large if you can withstand that "pain" intraday this rule has kept you (a) in the market "buy buy buying" or at the worst (b) not shorting the indexes like a deranged hedge fund manager who believes the market can go down - if only for a 3 day period.

To make the rule a tad easier to not be shaken out of, especially in morning's like we had today where the market dared to falter for a moment, I've changed the rule slightly from 5 day exponential moving average to 6 day.*  Please note using either 5 or 6... nothing tells us to flee this market yet.  (we held the 5 perfectly yet again)

*In the old days, we had to buy stocks after walking uphill, both ways, in the snow, in our bare feet.  We also had to use the phone rather than our electronic brokerage account to place a trade &  HAL9000 was a movie character, not a competitor.  The market also fell below the 10 day moving average and in real times of fear, below the 20 day moving average. 

I miss those chaotic times.

[the % of stocks in the S&P 500 has gone from "overbought" at 90% to *realllllllly* overbought as now OVER 93% of stocks above their 50 day! WOW!]

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