Monday, April 19, 2010

S&P 500 Bounces Off 20 Day Moving Average, Dumped Index Puts for Now

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Gosh, I have not typed that in a long time (S&P 500 touches 20 day moving average)...

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Even if this is a near term top, what I would expect is after this initial rash of "light" selling, for the dip buyers to rush in (as they are) since it's been the only strategy that works.  A pattern continues on Wall Street until it no longer works.  Even more pervasive in a computerized world versus human emotion one.  If indeed this is not just another buy the dip moment onto the way to S&P 2000+, we should travel near Thursday's highs and then if we create a "double top" it would be an awesome signal to short.  Very rarely do you make a peak and then go straight down....

I've sold my small SPY Put position here as this is a classic bounce area.  Two areas to get them back are (a) on that retrace to Thursday highs - which I could see happening when Apple "surprises us all" with a huge blowout quarter or (b) on a break below the 20 day moving average.

If we blast right through Thursday's highs... than it was just another buying opportunity on the ever upward march.  Obviously there are a lot of scenarios here, so I am not going to get too involved just for 10-15 S&P points... there will be much easier tells in the near future.  I'll drink Kool Aid on a breakout to new highs or turn to the dark side below the 20 day moving average.   In this area in the 1190s or 1200s... a lot more tricky.

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