Friday, April 23, 2010

Market Seems (Broken Record) Poised for a New Leg Up

This week has looked, more or less, no different than most other weeks the past 2+ months.  The only difference was yesterday when we actually had a down open of significance.  That was bought with much vigor and a 16 day intraday S&P move ensued.   Some of the moves yesterday such as Netflix (NFLX), Chipotle (CMG), and the like were stupendous.  Bears are being roasted on an open fire, and I can't imagine many are left even trying to place bets against the market.  It's been an unshortable market and until it proves otherwise - remains so.

It's been well documented how magical Mondays are.  It seems quaint when I pointed it out 5 months ago... back then the market had been up something like 9 of 11 Mondays.  We are now reaching streaks that simply make no sense on a statistical basis.  But it has at this stage become self reinforcing... everyone believes the market will go up Monday so they buy buy buy.  That feeds on itself in an infinite loop.  Lately, even late Friday has become a good time to buy as people crowd in ahead of Magical Mondays.  Let's see what the final 75 minutes bring as the market is poised at its highs of the year and no one cares about weekend news risk anymore.  Maybe the "I'm buying on late Friday to benefit on Monday" crowd can take us over 1214 today. The drop to the 20 day moving average (which was just yesterday morning) seems like a different year.

This little triangle above between the 20 day moving average (rising by the day) and S&P 1114 (highs for the year) is narrowing by the day, and will soon resolve.  In normal circumstances I'd say there might be a 25% chance it is to the downside, and 75% to the upside.  In this market I will place the odds at 99.7% to the upside, and 0.3% to the downside. 

I will join the lemming rush on a break out to new highs as I am often apt to do ...


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