Monday, April 26, 2010

HDFC Bank (HDB) Beats Estimates but Valuation Getting Quite Rich

I don't know how many more times I can write the same things... at what point is beating analysts expectations but being valued at some extreme level a warning sign?  Not yet. India's #2 bank, HDFC Bank (HDB) reported (Saturday?) and the results are again good.  But as I've written in the last few pieces on this company, I don't know how to justify paying forward 35x+ earnings as a great entry point, especially with a central bank that has begun to increase interest rates.  Yet as of last Thursday, as the stock broke over $150,  the chart said "buy buy buy"... a new breakout after a short consolidation.  And charts are apparently all that matter to HAL9000 and his merry band.  The stock is now at an all time high...

A quick look at earnings:
  • HDFC Bank (HDB) reported a 32.6 percent rise in its quarterly profit, beating market estimates, bolstered by a pick-up in credit demand in Asia's third-largest economy.   Profits were boosted by a 29% drop in interest expenses, which improved net interest income by 27%. 
  • The results were marginally better than analysts expectations.
  • Within retail — auto loans, commercial vehicles and home loans were the growth engines, followed by business banking
  • Strong growth in the loan book and better margins boosted net interest income, said Mr Paresh Sukhtankar, Executive Director, HDFC Bank. The net interest margin was up marginally at 4.4 per cent (against 4.3 per cent). Other income was down as treasury earnings were hit due to rising bond yields.
  • In the quarter, net NPAs dropped to 0.31 per cent (0.63 per cent). "The impact of the non-performing loans acquired from Centurion Bank is wearing off. With the economy looking up, the asset quality of the retail portfolio is improving," said Mr Sukhtankar.
  • The corporate loan book grew 40 per cent and retail 22 per cent.  

[Jan 15, 2010: HDFC Bank Earnings Rise 32% Year over Year]
[Oct 15, 2009: HDFC Bank's Earnings Propel Upward 30%]
[Jan 7, 2009: Bookkeeping - Starting HDFC Bank on Satyam Scandal]

Long HDFC Bank in fund; no personal position

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