Friday, March 12, 2010

Everything on Script this Morning

The perfect mosaic continues; as mentioned late yesterday surely this morning retail sales would come in better than expected and we'd be up in premarket.  As each level is cleared, one expects at some point to have a nasty reversal but more and more people will pile in.   So as outlined yesterday in [What's the Potential End Game for this Move] the last of the holdouts will be throwing in the towel, and as the Fast Money guys on CNBC said yesterday "if either (a) OR (b) happens we still go up either way" - that's now the mind set.  Magical Monday is also just around the bend.

Long story short, the lemmings are all running in 1 direction and while the tend to fall off the cliff at times, they can also suffocate you before they hit the edge of the mountain.  By following the herd one must understand there is going to be a moment of potentially quite bad losses as reversals from these extreme moments (S&P closing up 9 of 10 sessions, Russell 2000 something like 19 of 22?) will be fast and quick.  So the hope is to make more money chasing the upside than you will lose when eventually the pain comes.  And that's simply the mindset from here.

As outlined earlier this week to avoid a headfake of jumping over 1150 and then reversing back down I would wait for 1153 to buy, but we do have a consumer sentiment report at 10 AM so I assume I'll be buying index positions after that release, assuming no surprises.  Then from there, we just keep walking on the high wire knowing a strong gust of wind is going to hit one of these days.

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