I am too cautious to hold these SPY Calls (April 118) through any real pullback - they simply can cause too much damage in a short amount of time. I sold about 70% of the position earlier this afternoon when the S&P 500 popped back near S&P 1170, and now am exiting the last 30% around S&P 1167. A drop to S&P 1160 or whatnot would cause losses I am not willing to bear. I am more than happy to buy them back at more expensive levels on an up day, as they are meant as very short term trading vehicles during trend days. Yesterday's breakout did not follow through so I'll make the same trade another day.
I will remain more patient with the the index ETFs to see if the "5 day moving average" rule holds; remember if the S&P 500 closes below 1167 that will be the first close below the 5 day moving average since Feb 16th. There is nothing earth shattering about that figure - the market is supposed to close below the 5 day moving average often - but it simply signals how incredibly sticky this market has been to the upside. I'll assess if these are worth holding as the afternoon wears on.
I am now wondering if the nonsense tech stock IPO valuations (good companies, silly valuations) might reflect the height of giddiness and a short term top. Generally I like to look for nonsense stocks - especially of the $3-$9 Chinese and biotech variety to start exploding up with 20-30% moves on a daily basis - to mark a top. That has not really happened except for a few days about 2-3 weeks ago. Of course we just kept chugging along upward. But maybe instead it will be the IPOs; we'll see - calling tops has been a silly exercise... we'll only know in retrospect. There are still quarter end mark up games to play, and at this point in the insanity I'd like to see the market run right into the labor report a week from Friday for a perfect "sell the news" moment.
All it takes is a +0.5% premarket markup tomorrow and all this will be forgotten as the run to the roses continues ;)
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