Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Bookkeeping: Selling Remaining Index Long Positions

After some thinking, I am going to sell the remaining 40% of my index longs (SPY March calls, and TNA) this morning - these were bought Monday morning.  I will look to rebuy on any moderate pullback (say 10 S&P points lower) or a breakout higher than yesterday's intraday high, i.e. over 1124.  This is just short term trading with a small allocation of the fund... I am hoping to reallocate more cash into individual stocks but since all my favorite names (either names we hold or names I want to begin positions in) are quite extended and being chased by the "momo crowd", I want to wait for a pullback to add to / begin positions.  So I'm tabled for now with those stocks since I don't like chasing things up so many % points in a row.

As long as S&P 1109 holds I shall remain a (pseudo) bull... just as the 20 day exponential moving average crossing below the 50 day was a negative early in February, we now have the opposite happening as of today - another net positive. 

This rally has been led by small caps, which is interesting... we are now back to January highs in the Russell 2000.  Another reason to think there should be some rest period.  This chart reminds me of a lot of individual stocks I am stalking, a vertical move of late.

As for Friday's labor report it is now discounted by everyone that any bad news will be weather related.  This might lead to a huge positive figure a month from now since all the weather related losses of February will be offset (i.e. added BACK to the report) PLUS all the census worker hiring.  Something to keep in mind 30 days from now.

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