China tightened (slightly) their fiscal policy overnight, along with relatively weak Eurozone GDP growth are the excuses for today's weakness. This continues to be a listless market that right now is only good for daytraders. It has no memory from day to day and you cannot build positions. You can't read anything into "the action". Whatever worked yesterday does not work today, and so forth. Which again is why the minute by minute and day by day analysis of the market that dominates CNBC and chat boards is useless right now. Anything you said yesterday about "weaker dollar" "bounce in commodities" "risk trade is back" blah blah, is completely reversed today.
So to review
Monday: dollar up, commodities / risk plays down
Tuesday: (Greek rescue floated) dollar down, commodities / risk plays up
Wednesday: waiting on details of Greek rescue - market does nothing
Thursday: (Greek rescue confirmed but no details) dollar down, commodities / risk plays up
Friday: dollar up, commodities / risk plays down
You simply cannot build up positions in this environment. Whatever analysis you do on 1 day is completely useless within 48 hours. We remain in a white noise area as noted all week; I only wish that darn S&P had hit 1085 yesterday so I could of put on my shorts... I was greedy and wanted 5 more S&P points on the traditional "pre market futures run up" I expected this morning (and almost any other morning).
As I type this the S&P 500 is 2 points away from where it closed the week last Friday. All that drama and hot air via punditry this week... and we're right back where we started. Let's see if the shorts cover in the last hour as they did a week ago; there is not as much "news risk" from the Greek rescue this week because it's already been announced in principal. Hence I doubt we have a Groundhog Day with a miracle recovery in the closing hour. That would be just too cute to see on back to back Fridays.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Market Continues to Only be Useful to Daytraders
Best Of FMMF
- 1: Warren Buffet Piles on Europe
- 2: [Video] Jim Chanos Returns from Europe, Even More Bearish on China
- 3: A Chart to Open Our Eyes - Staggering Changes by Multinationals in Employment Behavior 00s vs 90s
- 4: Futures Blasted on Dexia Woes... and Poor Preliminary China Data
- 5: Market Working to Worst Thanksgiving Since 1932
- 6: Et Tu, German Bonds? Poor Auction Raises Eyebrows