Monday, February 8, 2010

Bookkeeping: Closing Priceline (PCLN) - Will Return

I am closing the last of Priceline (PCLN) for now; one of our longest held positions initiated last May.  The overall gain is about 90% but we have not done much with the name since summer 2009, so some of those gains were on a small amount of shares.

I am very torn here as the leadership stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Visa (V), and Priceline (PCLN) all seem to be in weak condition, following the "high beta go to" names we outlined a few weeks ago (i.e. Google). 

To me the above charts all look like nice entries for short positions - not longs.

On the other hand things like silver (SLV) are so oversold you have to expect a bounce somewhere, especially with the US dollar so overextended to the upside. 

Overall, I'll feel more comfortable donning a bull suit if the S&P 500 jumps back over 1100 and the hedge funds "go to" stocks start recovering some of their moving averages.  Visa and Apple had 2 of the best reports in the large cap space and are not being rewarded for it.  A market without generals is something to keep at arm's length.  Even the so called rally today off that "awesome cool" reversal Friday has to be seriously disappointing to the bulls.  The follow through thus far is inept; especially disappointing because this is a Magical Monday.  You'd think with the 18 hours of analysis about the "bounce" Friday, we'd at least have seen a move over S&P 1080.  Personally, I was hoping for such a move to reacquire some short exposure closer to 1090-1100.

I remain unconvinced that Friday was anything more than short covering & a technical bounce off the 200 day moving average.  Otherwise, the generals would be marching upward - not sewing buttons on their uniforms.

No positions

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