Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Overview of Remaining Material Long Positions

There have been a ton of changes in exposure the past 5 sessions as the market has really punished many names in the small and mid cap space.  We only have light exposure to "weak dollar / commodity" names but they too have bene traumatized the past week.  The S&P could have upside to about 1110 / 1115 and then we'll see how it acts from there but between 1085 and 1130 I consider it all white noise in the intermediate term.  Over S&P 1130 and I'll reconsider a bullish stance. 

If this bounce occurs in the index, so will a lot of the individual names that have been heavily damaged this past week, but as we said yesterday it *should* set them up to be shorts (not longs) as they run into resistance areas.

We've been flushed out of many names as they broke support.  Here are the few remaining long positions with a material affect on the portfolio - keeping a close eye on these but thus far they have held in there.  Two weeks ago I had about 25 stocks which looked in good shape, now just a handful - not much left to analyze at this point.

Potash (POT) - stop loss is in the high $107s area; just missed executing this morning.  The chart is not good, but has held up much better than coal, steel, copper and other such areas which have been trounced lately.

EnerNOC (ENOC) - bounced nicely off the 50 day moving average

Assured Guaranty (AGO) - was starting a nice breakout until the market broke down

DragonWave (DRWI) - retreated sharply the past week, and wicked volatility today, but thus far still holding in


Two names with lesser effect - one that we cut back ahead of earnings (ATHR) and one we just added to the portfolio (FFIV) - still look good.  Also both these names have just reported earnings so there is no "lemmings risk" for the next 3 months.

Wyndham, Worldwide (WYN) looks good but I sold higher (so far so good) and hope to rebuy at the "gap".  Thus far it has pulled back in non dramatic fashion to the 20 day moving average and continues to exhibit relative strength.

I am also interested in Seagate (STX) although we don't own it ...

Other than that, the pickings are relatively slim out there - at least in sectors I focus on. 

Long all names mentioned in fund except Seagate; no personal position

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